The so-called duopoly between Facebook and Google to control the bulk of digital ad spend is far from over, according to eMarketer.
The firm’s newest forecast expects for digital ad spend in the U.S. to grow 15.9 percent this year—the equivalent of $83 billion in revenue. Within that growth, Facebook’s ad revenue is projected to jump 32.1 percent while advertisers’ spend with Google will increase 14.8 percent.
Overall, Google controls 40.7 percent of the U.S. digital ad market, followed by Facebook with 19.7 percent. Google’s control primarily comes from search, and eMarketer expects that it will claim $28.5 billion of spend this year, which is 77.8 percent of the total $36.69 billion market. By next year, Google’s search revenues are expected to bring in $32.40 billion of the $40.49 billion industry.
Those numbers are more staggering when zeroing in on the mobile ad market. Google will make up 32.4 percent of mobile spend this year while Facebook generates 24.6 percent of spend, meaning that the two companies collectively make up 57 percent of mobile ad spend.
Within display advertising in the U.S., Facebook makes up 39.1 percent of spend, equal to $16.3 billion, and up from $12.4 billion in 2016. Next year, the company will generate $20.2 billion from display advertising, primarily from mobile. And by 2019, Facebook’s display advertising revenues will hit $23.89 billion of spend, equal to 43.7 percent of spend.
“Facebook’s revenue growth can be attributed to growth in both usage and time spent, which continues to draw advertisers in greater numbers,” eMarketer said in the report. “Also, Instagram is helping to drive Facebook’s revenue growth—[Instagram] will make up 20 percent of its parent’s U.S. mobile revenue this year, up from 15 percent last year.”
Meanwhile, Google will make $5.2 billion from U.S. display advertising this year, up from $4.83 billion last year, to make up 12.5 percent of total display spend. While Google’s overall share on display advertising could slip slightly in the coming years, it is expected to make $5.94 billion in 2018 and $6.72 billion in 2019 from display advertising.
Despite all the hype around Snap’s IPO, the company’s revenues are far from competing with Facebook and Google. In 2017, Snap is expected to make $800 million from display advertising in the U.S., or 1.8 percent of the market. And Snap makes up 1.3 percent of mobile ad spend.
Next year, Snap’s U.S. revenue from display advertising will hit $1.3 billion—a 65.7 percent increase that makes up 2.6 percent of the market. And by 2019, Snap is expected to have a $2.2 billion ad business, still only making up 4 percent of the market. Also by 2019, Snap will account for 2.7 percent of mobile ad spend.
With flat growth and lingering concerns from Wall Street, eMarketer has lowered its expectations for Twitter’s advertising revenue. The micro-blogging service is expected to bring in $1.3 billion from U.S. display advertising this year, down from $1.36 billion in 2016. Twitter controls 2 percent of this year’s mobile ad market. The company’s 2018 revenue will remain flat and will increase slightly to $1.31 billion in 2019, per eMarketer’s estimates. Globally, Twitter’s revenue is expected to grow 1.6 percent in 2017.
Yahoo and Verizon’s ad revenue will also sluggishly increase. This year, Yahoo will make $1.29 billion from display advertising in the U.S., only slightly increasing to $1.3 billion in 2018. Verizon-owned AOL and Millennial Media are on track to make $1.1 billion this year, increasing to $1.16 billion in 2018.
March 13, 2017.